Finviz Scan for 13/01/10 - 6 Bull, 0 Bear

Hi All,

Notes: Market gapped down on open and went tried to rally up in 1st 30 mins. Market start to fall again after lunch. DJI did show strength in the last hour but SPX and NDX is not really following. World market now is falling because of last night performance. This looks bad.

Since Market is down yesterday, all bull entry are abandoned. But I will still put the watch list here in case we have some strong stocks in weak market.

The new moon is coming.  It's not yet New Moon but is this the Market peak? New Moon is on 16th Jan 10. (Chang pls correct me if I am wrong)

Feel free to comment or give suggestions to improve trading the setup.

Bulls Scan Results
EMN - 13/1/10: Hammer T30. XLB 4th hottest sector but relative strength down.
EOG - 13/1/10: Inverted hammer. XLE 3rd Hottest sector.
HGSI - 13/1/10: T30 hammer. XLV relative strength break out.
NFX - 13/1/10: hammer. XLE 3rd Hottest sector.
RCL - 13/1/10: Doji. IYC industry down but RCL relative strength breakout.
WLT - 13/1/10: Spinning top. XLI 2nd Hottest sector.

Bears Scan Results
NA

Review (Watchlist)
Bulls

1. HUM - 10/12/09: Hidden Divergence - Red Spinning top and doving pigeon. Relative strength still present. but Healthcare was down. Now $46.18.
2. V - 9/12/09: Bullish Engulfing but no T30, swing trap or ghost town. Price continue to move up. . Losing relative strength. In supply zone now. See if it will go down from here. Now $86.34
   
3. SINA - 10/12/09: Entry at $44.27. Target $47.95. Stop loss $42.57. 9/1/10: Doji on EMA30. Now $45.57. Relative strength weakening.
   
4. UUP - 12/1/10: Broke out of downtrend channel resistance. 1st pullback to TAZ but now below EMA30 with double hammer. Will continue to monitor just to see where USD goes.
   
5. EL - 23/12/09: Bullish Harami but very near to 52w high area.Entry at $48.09. Stop loss $47.51. Target $50.39. Head and shoulders? XLP is down but EL relative strength is up. 13/1/10: Now $49.56 but target hit during the day.
   
6. INFY - 9/1/10: Credit spread anyone? Earnings is near but setup looks good. Entered at $54.35 (5 min chart 50% retracement) stop loss $ 53.52 Target $56.87. Price gapped above target. Stock sold at $57.79. The day ended a shooting star at $57.65.
   
7. IP - 9/1/10: - Hammer. XLB 2nd hottest sector in past 10 days. Entered at $27.04. Stop loss $26.18 Target $28.49. 13/1/10: Inverted hammer. Now $26.18. High volume.
   
8. VTR - 9/1/10 Hammer at EMA30. XLV 5th coldest sector. VTR losing relative strength. Did not enter because Risk/reward not good. But will monitor to see the outcome. Now $43.66.
   
9. AGN - 12/1/10: Harami hammer on SMA50. 1st pullback to TAZ. XLV 2nd Hottest sector in past 10 days. XLV relative strength breaking out.  Market down. AGN down. Form spinning top around SMA50. In demand zone. Entry $60.68, Stop Loss $59.99 Target $63.89.

Bears

1. CHL - 6/1/10: doji at SMA50 resistance. Relative strength still down. IXP sector is also losing strength. Entry at $47.16. Stop loss $47.34. Target $45.13. 7/1/10: Did not trigger but CHL is in a nice downtrend. Will continue to monitor to see if price will go down from here. So far when price is near the downtrend resistance, it goes down fast. 12/1/10: Broke out of channel with huge volume. If price shoot pass SMA200, time to look for 1st pullback to TAZ. Now 49.01.
   

Net: +$1793. (Details pls see table)


Objective:
My objective of this project is to study the win/loss rate of this system. Thus, position sizing is not the main priority here. The trades will be simulated with 100 shares of stocks per trade. Another reason is, risk control with options will be different to individuals depending on the strike price and months that one pick, thus we will not use options in the analysis.

TAZ - Profit & Loss Analysis v1.0.xls:
This is the summary of all the trades taken by TAZ method (with more simplified rules). This excel will tabulate the expectancy return of the system and reflect if there is any tweaking need to be done when market condition changes.

Finviz Scan:
Bull Scan:
Optionable stock.
Price > $20.
ROE > 10%
Price < SMA20.
Price > SMA50
Price > SMA200.
Average volume > 1000,000 (Adjustable if too many stocks)
ATR > 0.5

Bear Scan:
Optionable stock.

Price > $20.

Price > SMA20.
Price < SMA50
Price < SMA200.
Average volume > 500,000. (Adjustable if too many stocks)

ATR > 0.5

Rules (For filtering too)
Never trade outside TAZ (EMA30, SMA10), except if SMA50 is historically a strong support/resistance.
Buy only if W%R(10) is oversold, sell only if W%R(10) is overbought. (Will monitor as oscillator may not work well when trending.)
Wait for candlestick confirmation even if in the Supply or Demand Zone.
Confirmation will be based on open/close/high/ low depending on candlestick pattern.
Watch for price reversal at 50% retracements of daily Engulfing patterns, Piercing pattern and dark cloud covers in 5 min chart.
No volume analysis. (Guppy's theory of Volume following price)
Make sure the trend is confirmed with nice GMMA.
Long when SPX is up. Short when SPX is down.
Exit trade only when stop loss is hit or target is hit. We want to see how far the trend last or how soon the stop out is hit. (This calculation is in the excel)
Price should move after Candlestick Reversal pattern. If they don't, cut the trade after 3 days. (May not apply to options)

Regards,
Lewis
Reference: www.swing-trade-stocks.com