Daily Watchlist 26/1/10 - 6 Bulls 0 Bears

Notes: VIX shot up and out of bollingerband. If Bollinger is correct, I think the prices are supported.
But...DJI is below SMA50 already. By right, no more long should be taken unless the counter really shows strong relative strength. I don't know if this is true. Will monitor from here again. I entered BIIB last night but not by the TAZ rule. I entered in the demand zone, which I am still not sure how OTA defines them so accurately.... I'm thinking of starting another project to trade just base on demand and supply.

One more example is CHL. Last 2 supply did not work. But the 3rd one work so well. I will appreciate if anyone can dig out the key from Sam Seiden's weekly newsletters.

http://lewis-marketanalysis.blogspot.com/search/label/Business%20Cycle
By the business cycle, if XLV is up, it shows we are at the early bear phase? This may be contradicting to VIX or VIX may be just for short term. Anybody knows?

I'm not convinced of the New Moon and Full Moon so I'm starting to track it all over again.
16th Jan 10 - Market not at bottom, so I assume it's peak. So far, the peak coincide with New Moon.
Full moon on 30 Jan 10. - bottom? It's this Saturday!!

Feel free to comment or give suggestions to improve trading the setup.

Bulls Scan Results

1. ABT - 26/1/10: Doji. XLV hit demand and RS present. ABT in demand zone and RS up. But…price is very near weekly supply level. Earnings is near. GMMA strong. XLV hottest sector.
2. AGO - 26/1/10: Doji. XLV hit demand and RS present. AGO RS up. Earnings is not near. Volume falls with prices. Looks like sell orders are drying up. GMMA strengthening. XLV hottest sector.
3. AMT - 26/1/10: Bullish harami. XLK down and XLS RS down. AMT RS Up. Earnings not near. GMMA tested EMA50.
4. BAX - 26/1/10: Doji. XLV hit demand and RS present. ABT in demand zone and RS up. Price broke out of weekly supply. Earnings is near. GMMA strong. XLV hottest sector.
5. GRMN - 26/1/10: Inverted hammer. IYZ hit demand. GRMN RS up.
6. TEVA - 26/1/10: Bullish harami. XLV hit demand and RS present. TEVA near demand zone and RS up. Earnings is near. GMMA strong. XLV hottest sector.Maybe it's because it is in XLP sector.
   

Bears Scan Results
NA.
Maybe CL waiting for price to reach supply? But relative strength of CL  broke out from downtrend resistance, which means CL is holding at current range when the market all fall like crazy. Earnings is near.


Review (Watchlist)
Bulls

1. UUP - 12/1/10: Broke out of downtrend channel resistance. 1st pullback to TAZ but now below EMA30. Will continue to monitor just to see where USD goes. Now $23.05. RS broke out downtrend resistance and strengthening.
   
2. BIIB -24/1/10: doji at resistance turn support. XLV and BIIB RS up. 25/1/10: BOT at $52.53. This trade is not following TAZ. I'm entering based on demand zone. Stop loss $51.87 Target $55.12.
3. MTL - 24/1/10: doji at resistance turn support. XLB RS down. MTL RS up. MTL might go down with XLB if market continue to fall. 25/1/10: Did not trade. Earnings today.
   

Bears

1. CHL - 6/1/10: doji at SMA50 resistance. Relative strength still down. IXP sector is also losing strength. Entry at $47.16. Stop loss $47.34. Target $45.13. 7/1/10: Did not trigger but CHL is in a nice downtrend. Will continue to monitor to see if price will go down from here. So far when price is near the downtrend resistance, it goes down fast. 12/1/10: Broke out of channel with huge volume. If price shoot pass SMA200, time to look for 1st pullback to TAZ. Now 50.00 - Hit supply and came down with market. Testing resistance turn support now. 24/1/10: Gap support at 46.35.Major demand at 44.70- 45.31. Imagine the last few supply was broken but the last supply produces a very good profit. Looks like Demand and Supply can profit if we don't get too many trades wrong and provided we make the risk very small in the zones.
   
2. TLT - 24/1/10: Bonds are moving up fast. In TAZ50 but RS is up. If market rebound from here, I think TLT will fall. It's in a very nice down channel now. Now $91.58. I will not record this in the P/L as this is traded off TAZ50 and not TAZ30. Will monitor progress separately. There is history of price piercing SMA50 and there is supply zone right above. Price gap down last night. I will only short if it is in the zone where supply exceed demand. Possible Entry $92.46 Stop loss $93.2 Target $89.14
   

Recycle Bin - Did not trigger.
NA

Net: +$813. (Details pls see table)